Commodity Trading Tips for Crude Oil

Crude gains after data showing U.S. jobless claims rose last week and housing starts fell in July strengthened the euro and weakened the dollar, helping support dollar-denominated oil prices. A fall in production in the North Sea during September due to maintenance has also tightened supply in Europe and helped push up the price of light, sweet crudes for immediate delivery. Global crude oil benchmark Brent has risen more than a third in less than two months on escalating worries about a conflict over Iran's nuclear programme and as investors hope for more stimulus measures from central banks, which would boost commodities. Data on Wednesday showing a steep drop in U.S. stocks exacerbated global supply worries. Added to that is the ongoing geopolitical issue in the Middle East with recent comments suggesting a conflict. U.S. crude stockpiles fell more than expected last week, slipping 3.7 million barrels to 366.16 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported, despite a modest rise in crude imports as plant utilization remained high. Analysts had forecast a drop of 1.7 million barrels. Crude stocks may have also declined in part due to the fall in output because of hurricanes in the United States. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 67.73, where as 50DMA is at 4915.28 and crude is trading above the same and getting support at 5242 and below could see a test of 5188 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 5328, a move above could see prices testing 5360.

Trading Ideas:
Crude trading range for the day is 5188-5360.

Crude gains on worries over possible disruptions to supply from the Middle East and a drop in U.S. oil inventories.

A fall in production in North Sea during September due to maintenance has also tightened supply in Europe.

Crude stocks have also declined in part due to the fall in output because of hurricanes in the US.

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Commodity Trading Tips for Copper

Copper ended with slight gains recovering from losses supported by a weaker dollar and expectations that recent financial data could spur growth-supporting measures that would boost global metals demand. German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed support for the European Central Bank (ECB) to fight the European debt crisis. Merkel said ECB President Mario Draghi's vow to do everything to preserve the euro zone is in line with what European leaders have been saying. Her comments helped the euro rebound strongly and drive commodity markets rallying from earlier lows. Expectations for economic stimulus in China grew after Premier Wen Jiabao said the country, the world's top consumer of refined copper, still faced headwinds despite cooling inflation. Those expectations got another boost after China's Commerce Ministry said foreign direct investment had fallen for January-July versus a year earlier and that the trade outlook for 2012 was worsening. Sluggish U.S. growth in the second quarter, undermined by the euro zone crisis, has also raised hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve will take further quantitative easing (QE) steps. Sluggish U.S. growth in the second quarter, undermined by the euro zone crisis, has also raised hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve will take further quantitative easing (QE) steps. In yesterday's trading session copper has touched the low of 413.05 after opening at 415, and finally settled at 414.95. For today's session market is looking to take support at 413.4, a break below could see a test of 411.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 416.1, a move above could see prices testing 417.2.

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 411.9-417.3.

Copper ended with slight gains recovering from losses supported by a weaker dollar

Expectations for stimulus in China grew after Premier Jiabao said country still faced headwinds despite cooling inflation

German Merkel’s comments helped euro rebound strongly and drive commodity markets rallying from lows.

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Commodity Trading Tips for Silver

Silver firmed on speculation that central banks may be set to launch more bullion-friendly stimulus measures to boost growth, though mixed U.S. data that dampened expectations for imminent Federal Reserve action kept prices in a range. Further monetary easing would benefit gold by boosting liquidity and maintaining pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding bullion at rock bottom, as well as fuelling inflation fears and weighing on the dollar. However, softer-than-expected inflation data reassured investors that price pressures would not prevent the Fed from launching more QE if a more negative view of growth emerges. The U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits rose by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000 last week, compared to expectations for an increase of 1,000 to 365,000. Moves in the bullion prices this year have largely tracked shifting expectations as to whether the U.S. central bank would pump more money into the financial system. Market players are already beginning to focus on an annual meeting of economists and central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the end of August. Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit gold, as the metal is seen as a safe store of value and inflation hedge. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 50.33, where as 50DMA is at 53419.92 and silver is trading above the same and getting support at 53492 and below could see a test of 53233 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 53902, a move above could see prices testing 54053.

Trading Ideas:
Silver trading range for the day is 53233-54053.

Silver firmed on speculation that central banks may be set to launch more bullion-friendly stimulus measures

Softer than expected inflation data reassured investors that price pressures would not prevent Fed from launching more QE

Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit prices, as bullion is seen as safe store of value.

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Commodity Trading Tips for Gold

Gold gained as comments by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and disappointing U.S. manufacturing and housing data fueled speculation that central banks may be set to launch more bullion-friendly stimulus measures. Further monetary easing would benefit gold by boosting liquidity and maintaining pressure on long-term interest rates, keeping the opportunity cost of holding bullion at rock bottom, as well as fuelling inflation fears and weighing on the dollar. Gold imports have already declined due to a doubling of import duty, and the drought could further dent demand from rural areas. Festival season began last week in India, the world's biggest consumer of the yellow metal last year, and will peak in November. However, softer-than-expected inflation data reassured investors that price pressures would not prevent the Fed from launching more QE if a more negative view of growth emerges. A closely watched report from the World Gold Council showed that demand for physical gold from jewellers and investors fell in the second quarter to its lowest level since the first three months of 2010. Gold consumption fell 7 percent or nearly 76 tonnes to 990 tonnes as a drop in buying in major consumers India and China outweighed a record quarter for central bank purchases. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 51.89, where as 50DMA is at 29956.08 and gold is trading above the same and getting support at 30034 and below could see a test of 29964 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30163, a move above could see prices testing 30222.

Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 29964-30222.

Gold gained as comments by Merkel and disappointing U.S. manufacturing data fueled speculation of stimulus measures

Further monetary easing would benefit gold by boosting liquidity and maintaining pressure on long-term interest rates

Gold imports by India slumped 56 percent in the second quarter after record prices discouraged buyers

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Commodity Trading Tips for Gold

Gold slid as healthy U.S. retail sales data prompted bullion investors to scale back their bets based on expectations of an imminent stimulus from the Federal Reserve. Bullion dropped after data showed U.S. retail sales rose in July for the first time in four months. However, ongoing expectations that policy makers around the world will announce fresh stimulus measures to help spur weak global growth continued to support the precious metal. Gold prices have been well-supported in recent sessions, amid ongoing expectations that central banks in the U.S., Europe and China will soon announce fresh stimulus measures to help spur growth in their respective economies. Investors were eyeing the release of euro zone growth data later in the day, after a report earlier showed that Germany’s economy slowed less-than-expected in the second quarter. Positive signals on the U.S. economy could cut the chances of another round of gold-friendly stimulus measures such as quantitative easing -- printing money to buy bonds. Expectations of such measures have supported prices in recent months. Investors now await U.S. regulatory filings by hedge funds and other big money managers which will show their gold investment holdings by the end of the second quarter. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 48.51, where as 50DMA is at 29976.3 and gold is trading above the same and getting support at 29920 and below could see a test of 29835 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 30120, a move above could see prices testing 30235.

Trading Ideas:
Gold trading range for the day is 29835-30235.

Gold slid after data showed U.S. retail sales rose in July for the first time in four months.

Ongoing expectations that policy makers will announce fresh stimulus measures to help spur weak global growth

Positive signals on U.S. economy could cut the chances of another round of gold-friendly stimulus measures

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Commodity Trading Tips for Copper

Copper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.66% up at 414.7 as better-than-expected U.S. retail sales and encouraging French and German economic growth data offset concerns about the health of the broader euro-zone region. Gains though were tempered by strength in the U.S. dollar as signs of an tentative improvement in the U.S. economy reduced expectations the Federal Reserve could soon launch a third round of bond buying, or quantitative easing, to help the world's largest economy. Even after Tuesday's data, investors hope the central bank will renew bond purchases for a third round of quantitative easing to support the economy. China is also expected to step up its response to slowing growth after two rounds of interest rate cuts. Stimulus could come in the form of more infrastructure projects, which are seen raising demand for base metals and energy. Chile, the world's top copper producer, lowered its 2012 average copper price outlook to $3.52 per pound from a previous estimate of $3.85, and sees prices slipping to $3.48 next year. Copper prices have shed 12 percent since the beginning of May on mounting fears of deteriorating economic outlooks in top metals consumer China, the euro zone and the United States. Some investors have hoped to see the Federal Reserve prop up the economy with more easy money this summer after a stream of weak data raised concerns about U.S. growth. In yesterday's trading session copper has touched the low of 410.65 after opening at 412.1, and finally settled at 414.7. For today's session market is looking to take support at 411.7, a break below could see a test of 408.6 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 416.8, a move above could see prices testing 418.8.

Trading Ideas:
Copper trading range for the day is 408.6-418.8.

Copper gains after release of better-than-expected U.S. retail sales and encouraging German data

Chile lowered its 2012 average copper price outlook to $3.52 per pound from a previous estimate of $3.85

Refined copper output of China dropped 6.8% in July from the record high production of previous month

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Commodity Trading Tips for Natural Gas

Natural Gas yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 3.31% up at 159 backed by incremental demand from several unexpected nuclear plant outages coupled with technical buying and short-covering. Market players continued to monitor weather forecasts for the rest of August to gauge the strength of future demand expectations for the fuel, as well as tropical storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico. Industry weather group MDA EarthSat said earlier that "seasonally cool" temperatures are expected for much of the U.S. over the next ten days, with only "minor warming trends" through the end of August. Cooler summer temperatures reduce the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning, dampening demand for natural gas. Concerns over bloated U.S. inventory levels have also dampened the appeal of the commodity. Total U.S. gas supplies stood at 3.241 trillion cubic feet last week, 16.8% above last year’s level and 13.5% above the five-year average level for the week. Early injection estimates for this week’s storage data range from 25 billion cubic feet to 40 billion cubic feet, compared to last year's build of 43 billion cubic feet. The five-year average change for the week is an increase of 43 billion cubic feet. The tumble in recent weeks comes as investors prepare for the last few weeks of summer in the U.S., which typically mark the end of a period of high gas usage. In yesterday's trading session natural gas has touched the low of 152.5 after opening at 153.6, and finally settled at 159. For today's session market is looking to take support at 154.5, a break below could see a test of 149.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 161.6, a move above could see prices testing 164.1.

Trading Ideas:
Nat.Gas trading range for the day is 149.93-164.13.

Natural gas ended higher backed by increase in demand coupled with technical buying and short-covering

The tumble in recent weeks comes as investors prepare for the last few weeks of summer in the U.S

Today natural gas storage: EXP: 25B PREV: 24B. Actual is at 8.00PM

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Commodity Trading Tips for Aluminium

Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.29% up at 102.6 supported by better-than-expected 2Q GDP of Germany and France but prices came under renewed pressure after a jump in exchange stocks and on waning hopes that producers, particularly in China, will make much-needed output cuts to remove some of excess in supply that has hurt prices. As inventories surged 29,000 mt and longs stayed cautious toward entering market, LME aluminum met strong resistance at the 10-day moving average and later pared early gains. The US July PPI and retail sales data released later in the day were quite inspiring, easing market risk aversion, but weakened possibility of QE3 by the US on the other hand. In response, the US dollar index rose, limiting upward momentum of aluminum. LME aluminum only touched a high of USD 1,864/mt before slipping to an intraday low of USD 1,847.3/mt at the tail of trading. Finally, LME aluminum gained USD 2.5/mt or 0.13% to close at USD 1,859/mt. Latest LME aluminum inventories were up 29,000 mt to 4,896,725 mt. Meanwhile, the brief upturn of US economy will lower investor’s expectation on introduction of stimulus measures by the Fed, which may push up the US dollar index and weigh on prices. In yesterday's trading session aluminium has touched the low of 102.2 after opening at 102.3, and finally settled at 102.6. For today's session market is looking to take support at 102.3, a break below could see a test of 101.9 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 102.9, a move above could see prices testing 103.2.

Trading Ideas:
Aluminium trading range for the day is 101.9-103.2.

Aluminium ended with gains supported by better-than-expected 2Q GDP of Germany and France

Prices came under pressure after jump in LME stocks and on waning hopes that producers will make output cuts

US July PPI and retail sales data released were quite inspiring, easing market risk aversion

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Commodity Trading Tips for Ref Soyaoil

Ref Soyaoil yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.55% up at 790.8 due to some buying support tracking gains in spot market demand. The country had shipped 1,39,551 tonnes in the same month in 2011, Indore-based SOPA said in a statement. During April-July this year, exports rose 12 per cent to 8,24,208 tonnes from 7,37,522 tonnes in the four-month period of 2010-11. During October-July of the current oil year, soyameal exports fell 3 per cent to 36,10,040 tonnes compared with 37,35,369 tonnes in the same period of the 2010-11 oil year. The country is estimated to have harvested 12.28 million tonnes of soyabean in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June) against 12.73 mt in the year-ago period. USDA WASDE report also supported the market sentiments. USDA has slashed down its estimated of ending stocks for world and US in Aug report as compared to July report. Soy oil production estimates for world and US is also cut down in it latest report which has given further support to the market. As per latest release from China's General Administration of Customs, the total July edible oil imports in China spurted by 4% from the same month in last year, and 35% from June to 7.30 lakh metric tonnes. At the Indore spot market soyoil edged up 0.1 rupees to 776.4 rupees 10 kg. In yesterday's trading session Ref Soyaoil has touched the low of 779.7 after opening at 783.3, and finally settled at 790.8. For today's session market is looking to take support at 783, a break below could see a test of 775.1 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 795.4, a move above could see prices testing 800.

Trading Ideas:
Ref soyaoil trading range for the day is 775.1-800.

Ref soyaoil ended with gains due to some buying support tracking gains in spot market demand.

The country had shipped 1,39,551 tonnes in the same month in 2011 – SOPA

The country is estimated to have harvested 12.28 million tonnes of soyabean in the 2011-12 crop year

At the Indore spot market soyoil edged up by 0.1 rupee to 776.4 rupees 10 kgs.

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Commodity Trading Tips for Crude Palm Oil

Crude Palm Oil yesterday traded with the negative node and settled -0.45% down at 550.3 as improving output and slower exports in the Southeast Asian country stirred concerns over swelling stocks. Stockpiles in Malaysia rose to 2.0 million tons as of July 31, climbing quickly from a 14-month low of 1.70 million tons on the back of strong production and lower CPO demand. Toward end-July, the government allowed the export of an extra 2 million tons of CPO at zero duty to prevent a build-up in stocks in the high production months that would have weighed on prices. The decision takes the overall duty-free export quota to 5.6 million tons for 2012, equivalent to 30% of Malaysia's overall CPO output. Palm oil stockpiles had risen to 2.0 million tons as of July 31, climbing quickly from a 14-month low of 1.70 million tons June 30, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said in a crop report. Malaysia's palm oil inventory level touched its highest since February at nearly two million tonnes in July, snapping four straight months of losses, thanks to improving output and lacklustre demand. In yesterday's trading session Crude Palm oil has touched the low of 548.2 after opening at 551, and finally settled at 550.3. For today's session market is looking to take support at 548.5, a break below could see a test of 546.7 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 551.8, a move above could see prices testing 553.3.

Trading Ideas:
CPO trading range for the day is 546.7-553.3.

Crude palm oil ended down as improving output and slower exports stirred concerns over swelling stocks.

Stockpiles in Malaysia rose to 2.0 mln tons, climbing quickly from a 14-month low of 1.70 million tons

Malaysia's palm oil inventory level touched its highest since February at nearly two million tonnes in July

Crude palm oil prices in spot market dropped by 1.90 rupees and settled at 550.10 rupees.

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Commodity Trading Tips for Wheat

Wheat yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.44% up at 1376 on some short covering tracking spot prices but prices likely to be weighed on an improvement in rains and subsequent decline in the prices of other farm commodities. Indian state trading company PEC has issued an international tender to export 125,000 tonnes of milling wheat for delivery in October. Wheat prices are likely to fall as fresh buying has stopped on market talks that government might curb shipments by private traders. India stands to benefit from higher global wheat prices currently if it manages to seal deals through its three tenders, issued just days after the country's cabinet approved export of 2 million tonnes of wheat. Traders are worried that as soon as prices of wheat start rising in local market, government could impose restriction on shipments and this has dampened the spirit. India lifted a four-year ban on wheat exports in September, but private shipments from the South Asian nation have picked up only in recent weeks after a rally in global prices and a weaker rupee made Indian wheat competitive in the world market. In Delhi wheat prices gained 12.25 rupee to end at 1420.9 rupees per 10 kg. In yesterday's trading session Wheat has touched the low of 1361 after opening at 1367, and finally settled at 1376. For today's session market is looking to take support at 1363, a break below could see a test of 1350 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1387, a move above could see prices testing 1398.

Trading Ideas:
Wheat trading range for the day is 1350-1398.

Wheat ended with gains on some short covering tracking spot prices

Prices to be weighed down on improvement in rains and subsequent decline in prices of other farm commodities

Wheat prices are likely to fall as fresh buying has stopped on talks that government might curb shipments

In Delhi wheat prices gained 12.25 rupee to end at 1420.9 rupees per 10 kg.

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Commodity Trading Tips for Mustardseed

Mustardseed yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 0.75% up at 4408 on some buying support tracking gains spot market amid firmness in other oilseed counters. Sluggish export demand likely to weigh on mustard seed market. In the latest released USDA WASDE report, it lowered Indian oilseeds production estimates form July report by 14 Lakh tons on deficient rains. As per the latest release from The Solvent Extractors' Association of India, the total exports of mustard meal was reported at 2.54 lakh tonnes during the April- July 2012 against 4.94 lakh tonnes that were reported in the last year in the same period. Rains are seen in the soybean producing states in India like MP which has brightened the production prospects of the kharif crops. India’s soyameal exports rose 21 per cent to 1,68,341 tonnes in July this year. During October-July of the current oil year, soyameal exports fell 3 per cent to 36,10,040 tonnes compared with 37,35,369 tonnes in the same period of the 2010-11 oil year. The total arrivals of mustard seed decreased by 6000 bags at 56000 bags in major mandies. In the Sri Ganganagar spot market in Rajasthan the price edged up by 40.75 rupee to 4305.75 rupees per 20 kgs. In yesterday's trading session Mustardseed has touched the low of 4336 after opening at 4356, and finally settled at 4408. For today's session market is looking to take support at 4356.7, a break below could see a test of 4305.3 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 4438.7, a move above could see prices testing 4469.3.

Trading Ideas:
RM Seed trading range for the day is 4305-4469.

Mustard seed ended higher on some buying support tracking gains spot market amid firmness in other oilseed counters

The total arrivals of mustard seed decreased by 6000 bags at 56000 bags in major mandies.

NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks dropped by 1231 tonnes to 118172 tonnes.

In the Sri Ganganagar spot market in Rajasthan the price edged up by 40.75 rupee to 4305.75 rupees per 20 kgs.

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